Hello, 

Welcome to the fifteenth edition of Dealroom News, the weekly newsletter where we bring the data to cover and analyse some of the most important global technology developments.

This week's newsletter is a deep dive into startup graduation funnels across the world — and what they can show about different ecosystems' strengths and weaknesses. 

We're constantly working on improving this newsletter — and nothing can be of more help than your feedback. If you have any questions, suggestions, or opinions, please do sent them our way by replying to this email. 

Now, let's dive into this week's edition. 

Andrii Degeler,

Head of News at Dealroom.co

Light at the end of the funnel

There are numerous ways of measuring, tracking, and assessing a startup ecosystem. We list various KPIs in our reports and on the platform, but my personal favourite has long been the graduation funnel — which we also expanded significantly this week. 

Now that the latest version of the tool is available to users, I decided to take a deeper dive into what it can show — and highlight a few unexpected findings.

The rate of companies moving through the funnel — in terms of funding, valuation, and revenue growth — is a good way to assess the general health of the ecosystem. It reflects the quality of founders, early-stage support, as well as access to talent and capital. 

The graph showing graduation rates across all regions and stages resembles Paul Graham's famous Startup Curve, with the Pre-Seed to Seed conversion representing the Trough of Sorrow where many ventures cease to exist. 

Across the world, only 23% of startups with pre-seed funding attract a seed round — the lowest conversion rate of all stages. Africa leads in this indicator, but is still only 3 percentage points above the global average. 

From an outcome perspective, North America and Asia are the global leaders in mega-scaleup conversion rates, from first funding into rounds of more than $100 million. They're followed by New Palo Alto and South America.

This ranking changes if we look at revenue outcomes. It is significantly more likely for a startup to reach $100 million ARR in New Palo Alto and Europe in general than in North America or elsewhere in the world. About one in every hundred funded startups ends up with $100 million or more in revenue compared to 0.69% across the Atlantic. 

Similar to the mega scaleup ranking, North America and Asia are leading the rest of the world in conversion from a funded startup to a unicorn (with a valuation of at least $1 billion). 

Another interesting way to look at the unicorn conversion is by industry. It's almost twice as likely for a funded security startup to become a unicorn as a marketing one. Among the other high-conversion industries are fintech, enterprise software, transportation, and telecommunications. 

Despite the buzz and excitement around the technology, AI companies (working across all industries) aren't outliers in this ranking, with a 2.2% chance to convert from first funding to unicorn status. Similarly, deep tech startups show a 2.4% probability.

Although conversion rates don't capture everything, they are a useful tool in understanding the startup journey within an ecosystem. Regional comparisons can also show unrealised potential and areas where focussed intervention could yield significant results. An easy example is the lack of late-stage capital in New Palo Alto and Europe in general. 

What's the performance of your own ecosystem like in these funnels? Let me know by replying to this email!

Past week's 10 unmissable stories

ClickHouse, a database technology startup spun out of Yandex, has raised $400 million at a $15 billion valuation—more than double its $6.35 billion valuation from May 2025. Dragoneer Investment Group led the round, with participation from Bessemer Venture Partners, GIC, Index Ventures, Khosla Ventures, Lightspeed, T. Rowe Price, and WCM Investment Management. The company is also acquiring Germany's Langfuse, which builds AI safety and accuracy tools. ClickHouse counts Meta, Tesla, and Anthropic among its customers.

ElevenLabs, the AI voice-generator startup, is in talks to raise hundreds of millions of dollars at an $11 billion valuation, nearly doublnig its $6.6 billion valuation from just four months ago. The deal would make ElevenLabs the UK's most valuable AI startup, surpassing Wayve ($8 billion) and Nscale ($3 billion). Founded in London in 2022 by Polish entrepreneurs, the company generated $330 million in annual recurring revenue last year and is backed by Sequoia, Iconiq, and Andreessen Horowitz.

Vimeo is laying off a "large portion" of its staff just months after Italian software company Bending Spoons acquired the video platform for $1.38 billion. Former employees report that "almost everyone" was let go, including the entire video team. This marks the company's second round of layoffs in under six months. Bending Spoons has a pattern of significant workforce reductions following acquisitions, having previously cut staff at WeTransfer, Filmic, and Evernote.

Cloover, a Berlin-based climate technology startup, has raised over $1.2 billion in debt and equity funding to help European households adopt rooftop solar, home batteries, and heat pumps. The round includes $22 million in equity from Lowercarbon Capital and Bosch Ventures, plus $1.2 billion in debt from an unnamed European bank. The company, founded in 2023, became profitable last year and aims to increase revenue fivefold to $500 million in 2026.

Lightning AI, the Nvidia-backed startup behind open source tool PyTorch Lightning, has merged with data center operator Voltage Park in a deal valuing the combined company at over $2.5 billion. The merged entity claims over $500 million in annual recurring revenue. Voltage Park, which manages over 35,000 Nvidia GPUs across six US data centers, was originally funded by a $900 million grant from crypto billionaire Jed McCaleb's Navigation Fund. Customers include Cursor, Reflection, and Higgsfield.

Vinted, Europe's largest online secondhand clothing marketplace, is pouring tens of millions of dollars into a renewed push to crack the US market after a failed 2013 attempt. The Lithuania-based startup, valued at nearly $6 billion, expects around $1 billion in revenue for 2025 with 40% year-over-year growth. CEO Thomas Plantenga said the company is also speaking with bankers about a potential IPO in the US or Europe, though not this year.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has been meeting with Middle Eastern investors, including state-backed funds in Abu Dhabi, to raise $50 billion or more at a valuation of $750–830 billion. The company has also held separate talks with Amazon for at least $10 billion. OpenAI, valued at $500 billion in fall 2025, has committed to spend over $1.4 trillion on AI infrastructure in the coming years and remains unprofitable.

SambaNova Systems, an AI chip startup founded by Stanford professors, is seeking $300–500 million in funding after acquisition talks with Intel stalled. Intel had previously discussed buying the company at a valuation of about $1.6 billion including debt. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan serves as SambaNova's chairman, and Intel may still make an additional investment. The company was valued at $5 billion in a 2021 funding round led by SoftBank's Vision Fund 2.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced "EU Inc." at Davos, a pan-European legal entity for startups that would sit alongside national company structures. The "28th regime" promises 48-hour fully digital company registration, a central EU registry, standardised investment documentation, and a Europe-wide stock option framework. The initiative follows a policy campaign backed by over 22,000 signatories including leading founders and investors.

Sequoia Capital is lining up its first investment in Anthropic, joining a funding round targeting $25 billion or more at a $350 billion valuation — double the $170 billion from four months ago. GIC and Coatue are leading with $1.5 billion each, while Microsoft and Nvidia have committed up to $15 billion combined. The move follows Sequoia's leadership shake-up, with Roelof Botha — who was wary of concentrated AI bets — ousted in November. Anthropic's annualised revenue has grown roughly tenfold to $10 billion.

This is all for the fifteenth edition of Dealroom News — we hope you found it useful! Once again, please do reply to this email and let us know what you think. 

Until next week!